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ISW Update on Middle Eastern Affairs

Disclaimer

Summary based on reporting from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). Full credit to ISW for all analysis and insights.

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Russia Offers to Mediate Between US & Iran — But Can They Be Trusted?


Russia has offered to broker talks between the US and Iran, covering Iran’s nuclear program and its support for regional militias (the "Axis of Resistance").


ISW highlights that Russia has consistently supported these Iranian-backed militias, even helping them target US forces and international shipping.


Russia and Iran signed a strategic deal in January 2025, cementing their military and economic cooperation.


With Russia dependent on Iranian drones and missiles for the war in Ukraine, Moscow is unlikely to pressure Tehran into concessions.


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Deepening Russia-Iran Ties


Russian weapons experts visited Iran at least twice in 2024, inspecting missile production sites and underground facilities.


Visits followed Iranian missile shipments to Russia and Israeli airstrikes targeting Iran’s missile capabilities.


Russian experts also assessed damage to Russian-made air defenses in Iran after Israeli strikes in April 2024.


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Iraqi Politics — Power Struggles Ahead of 2025 Elections


Former Iraqi PM Nouri al Maliki wants Shia cleric Muqtada al Sadr to participate in Iraq’s October 2025 elections.


Why? To split the Shia vote and weaken current PM Mohammad Shia al Sudani, who left Maliki’s party in 2019.


Sudani may form a counter-alliance with former PM Haider al Abadi and political leader Ammar al Hakim, both critics of Iranian influence in Iraq.


ISW notes that Maliki fears Sadr could destabilize Iraq with protests if excluded — a repeat of post-2021 unrest.


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Syria — New Militia Moves & Israeli Operations


A pro-Assad militia announced plans to resist US, Israeli, and Turkish influence in Syria.


This new group, "The First of the Brave," claims to represent all Syrian sects, which is unusual for Iran-linked militias.


Israeli forces conducted their deepest raid into Syria yet, hitting a former Syrian Army base near Quneitra, 16km from the 1974 disengagement line.


Meanwhile, Turkey and Turkish-backed forces struck Kurdish positions in northern Syria, escalating tensions near key dams and bridges.


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Iran’s Global Moves — Economy, Oil, and Diplomacy


Iran’s currency slightly appreciated to about 906,800 rials per USD.


Iran is shifting oil shipments to smaller vessels to dodge US sanctions, especially after China’s Shandong ports banned sanctioned tankers in early 2025.


Iran and Turkey are clashing diplomatically, with Turkey threatening to support Iranian opposition groups. This reflects rising friction over Syria and regional competition.


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Yemen — Houthis Designated as Terrorists


The US formally designated the Houthis as a Foreign Terrorist Organization on March 4.


Houthi leaders threatened unspecified military retaliation if the US follows up with personal sanctions.


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Lebanon — US Boosts Lebanese Army


The US granted $95 million in military aid to Lebanon’s army, which has been moving into former Hezbollah areas in southern Lebanon — a sign of progress, according to ISW.


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FINAL THOUGHTS


This update, from ISW’s detailed reporting, highlights how Iran’s growing partnerships with Russia, ongoing militia activity, and political maneuvering in Iraq and Syria are shaping the region. From missile production to oil smuggling and power struggles, Iran’s influence — and the challenges to US interests — continues to expand.


All analysis and insights are sourced directly from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). For full details, visit ISW’s website.


For more reading: visit these links that ISW cited.


1. Bloomberg: Iran, Putin to Help Trump Broker Nuclear Talks with Tehran



2. The Telegraph: Putin Agrees to Help Trump Direct Talks with Iran



3. New York Times: American Commandos, Russian Mercenaries in Syria



4. Wall Street Journal: Russia Provided Targeting Data for Houthi Assault on Global Shipping



5. Understanding War: Iran Update - January 17, 2025

Russia-Iran Coalition Deepens



6. Understanding War: Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment - February 23, 2025

Iran Update - September 6, 2024



7. Reuters: Russian Missile Experts Flew to Iran Amid Clashes with Israel



8. Understanding War: Iran Update - February 20, 2025



9. Critical Threats: The Consequences of the IDF Strikes into Iran



10. Al-Mada Paper:



— Flabby G



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